ARK Invest is misrepresenting how many Tesla Robotaxis there are and how much value they can derive.
Other videos mentioned in this video:
Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Lie
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Transcript:
00:00:00:00 - 00:00:30:05
Bennett Tomlin
Recently, Ark invest, a massive investment advisory firm, released a report where they predict Tesla will have a market cap of $8 trillion in five years. Is this the investment opportunity of a lifetime? That's certainly a huge number considering the current market cap is just over 500 billion. So what's going to drive this many fold increase in value? Robotaxis.
00:00:30:07 - 00:00:59:15
Bennett Tomlin
Longtime fans of the channel know what a big fan of robotaxis am, especially when they are surrounded by bad math. And this report has some stunningly bad math. Look at these graphs, for example. That's right. They expect 88% 9/10 of Tesla's enterprise value to come from the definitely real robotaxis. You know, the ones that launched with a million robotaxis in 2020.
00:00:59:17 - 00:01:08:15
Bennett Tomlin
When does Ark think these robotaxis will launch 2025? So expect another video in 2026 where I clown on that prediction.
00:01:08:15 - 00:01:24:00
Bennett Tomlin
Now, this entire poorly written report made me deeply upset. But when I saw this graph, which Ark believes explains why Tesla has a significant advantage over its competitors. I was filled with rage.
00:01:24:00 - 00:01:42:20
Bennett Tomlin
Let's talk about this graph first. The y axis. It says the unit is in million miles. Which means this graph shows Tesla's driving 1.4 billion million miles per year, which is 1.4 quadrillion miles per year.
00:01:42:22 - 00:01:47:21
Bennett Tomlin
I'm assuming they mislabeled it, but otherwise, what the fuck?
00:01:47:21 - 00:02:14:12
Bennett Tomlin
Even more egregious than that is the fact that this chart is lying about the number of autonomous miles, Teslas drive. And we know this because Tesla tells regulators and customers that their system is not autonomous. To prove this, let's zoom in on California, where Tesla has a variety of offices and manufacturing facilities.
00:02:14:13 - 00:02:20:11
Bennett Tomlin
In California, every autonomous mile needs to be reported to the DMV.
00:02:20:11 - 00:02:40:04
Bennett Tomlin
The California DMV publishes this data so we can look and compare every single mile that different firms drive. Let's do something that Ark is apparently incapable of and review that data to see in this one example state. Which firm is driving the most autonomous miles per year?
00:02:40:06 - 00:03:23:04
Bennett Tomlin
Cruise has a total of 583,624 miles. Waymo has a total of 3,669,962 miles, and Tesla has a total of. Drumroll, please. Zero miles. That's right. Zero miles. Not even one. Not a single corporate test. Zero total miles. It is incredibly frustrating to watch Ark describe a company that cannot drive one autonomous mile in their home state as having some completely made up, annualized autonomous mile run rate.
00:03:23:06 - 00:03:54:15
Bennett Tomlin
You're just making shit up. Ark. What the actual fuck are you doing? We can even further confirm this by reviewing Tesla's own website, where they confirm full self-driving features, require active driver supervision, and do not make the vehicle autonomous. Now, you may say that makes full Self-Driving a really stupid name, and I agree with you, but it also means zero Teslas on the road have driven any autonomous miles.
00:03:54:17 - 00:04:23:22
Bennett Tomlin
Not a single one is driving autonomously, and they are certainly not doing 1.4 quadrillion a autonomous miles every year. I believe Ark is not just wrong, but so wrong that it fundamentally proves them incapable of running money. Now, perhaps Tesla will prove me wrong by launching the robo taxis that were supposed to come out half a decade ago, but they won't.
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